Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -650 VAN +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -12.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -13.7 (-2.7) | 153.5 (+7.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -14.1 (-3.1) | 154.6 (+6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -12.3 (-1.3) | 155.3 (+5.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -12.5 (-1.5) | 154.4 (+6.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
| Feb 25, 2023 | VAN 88 – 72 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W12 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#5) | 12.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#5) | 2.77 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#5) | 2.97 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#13) | 0.584 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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