Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -400 DEN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -7.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -5.7 (+2.3) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -6.3 (+1.7) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.5 (+2.5) | 147.5 (+0.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.7 (+2.3) | 147.5 (+0.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#228) | -7.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#255) | -0.92 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#244) | -1.37 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#223) | 0.433 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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