Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +450 MARQ -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +14 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -13.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -11.6 (-2.4) | 152.7 (+11.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.9 (-2.1) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -12.0 (-2.0) | 151.7 (+12.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -11.8 (-2.2) | 151.7 (+12.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MARQ 76 – 60 GTWN |
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MARQ 76 – 61 GTWN |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 57 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 17-3 |
| Home | 5-12 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#210) | 14.5 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#265) | 2.52 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#251) | 3.46 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#284) | 0.592 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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