Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -450 FRES +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -14.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.3 (-0.3) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -10.5 (+0.5) | 130.1 (+12.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -12.6 (-1.6) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -12.3 (-1.3) | 135.5 (+7.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#40) | 0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#21) | -0.06 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#30) | 0.08 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#7) | 0.490 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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