Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -163 IU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +1 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -1.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -0.3 (-0.7) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -0.9 (-0.1) | 144.6 (-21.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -0.5 (-0.5) | 145.8 (-22.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -0.3 (-0.7) | 145.9 (-22.9) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | MICH 86 – 72 IU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MICH 70 – 67 IU |
| Dec 6, 2023 | IU 78 – 75 MICH |
| Mar 5, 2023 | IU 75 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 10, 2022 | IU 74 – 69 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#60) | 14.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#67) | 2.37 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#53) | 2.97 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#86) | 0.596 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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