Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -188 ALST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -7.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -4.0 (-7.0) | 142.0 (+3.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -4.2 (-7.2) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -4.2 (-7.2) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -4.3 (-7.3) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Away | 2-16 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L9 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#313) | -12.3 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#304) | -1.87 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#307) | -2.32 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#314) | 0.399 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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