Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UMES +140 NORF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UMES -0.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.2 (-3.2) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.8 (-2.2) | 138.5 (+10.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.2 (-4.2) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -0.6 (-3.6) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#243) | -1.3 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | 0.44 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#154) | 0.44 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#115) | 0.528 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.