Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -3.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.0 (+11.0) | 151.5 (-31.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.7 (+11.3) | 150.4 (-30.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.6 (+11.4) | 149.0 (-29.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.7 (+11.3) | 150.2 (-30.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#292) | -6.9 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#290) | -1.24 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#302) | -1.53 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#300) | 0.443 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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