Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -200 ARMY +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +17 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -6.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.8 (+11.2) | 139.2 (-16.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.2 (+11.8) | 135.7 (-12.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.4 (+11.6) | 139.6 (-16.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.0 (+12.0) | 140.7 (-17.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#191) | -3.7 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#228) | -0.96 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#233) | -1.12 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#190) | 0.455 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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