Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -188 PV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.7 (+10.3) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.6 (+9.4) | 138.4 (+5.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.6 (+10.4) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.9 (+10.1) | 138.9 (+5.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -5.4 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#252) | -1.56 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#263) | -1.70 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#233) | 0.411 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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