Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AF +210 UNM -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -7.1 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -7.2 (+19.2) | 142.7 (+23.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -6.6 (+18.6) | 141.0 (+25.0) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -7.0 (+19.0) | 143.2 (+22.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -7.0 (+19.0) | 142.7 (+23.3) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-9 | 15-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | 10.8 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | 2.15 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#188) | 2.74 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#245) | 0.593 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.