Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR +225 XAV -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -5.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.5 (+5.5) | 148.9 (-12.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -5.2 (+7.2) | 147.2 (-11.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.6 (+6.6) | 146.4 (-10.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.9 (+6.9) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#103) | 13.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#98) | 2.64 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#98) | 3.47 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#159) | 0.624 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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