Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -600 HC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -11.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -8.7 (-16.7) | 131.7 (+8.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -9.2 (-17.2) | 129.0 (+11.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -8.8 (-16.8) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -8.4 (-16.4) | 132.6 (+7.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 9-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#223) | -10.6 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#211) | -2.04 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#232) | -2.34 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#229) | 0.413 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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