Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -450 UNLV +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -9.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -7.7 (+3.3) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.6 (+2.4) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -8.8 (+2.2) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -8.0 (+3.0) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#25) | 6.8 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#19) | 1.19 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#23) | 1.79 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#10) | 0.568 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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