Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HARV -110 PENN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -3.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -1.9 (-9.9) | 141.8 (+10.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -0.8 (-8.8) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -1.1 (-9.1) | 141.2 (+10.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -1.5 (-9.5) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | 0.9 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#199) | -0.07 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#192) | 0.11 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#180) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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