Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -1400 CIT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -15.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -11.8 (-5.8) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.5 (-5.5) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -11.5 (-5.5) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -11.3 (-5.3) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | -9.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -1.77 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#156) | -1.99 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.414 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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