I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
77–42 on winners spread MAE 9.3 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Ohio +10.2 142.7 83% 59–76 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -6.1 142.3 34% 101–67 ✓
American University @ Lafayette -1.6 130.6 40% 60–47 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +3.7 129.0 64% 54–73 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Vanderbilt +7.0 144.8 76% 55–93 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M +10.1 143.0 84% 66–86 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ South Carolina +4.3 144.3 66% 64–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State +2.1 145.8 62% 66–62 ✗
Western Michigan @ Wisconsin +18.0 134.4 90% 66–76 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian +0.3 152.8 53% 96–101 ✓
Coppin State @ Rutgers +22.5 146.5 91% 57–90 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +2.7 143.2 62% 71–49 ✗
USC @ Washington +1.7 142.8 57% 80–67 ✗
UCLA @ Washington State -7.7 135.7 22% 67–66 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -4.3 153.7 29% 73–83 ✗
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -3.5 132.2 32% 74–56 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU +3.6 143.9 69% 61–67 ✓
Louisville @ Kentucky +21.4 142.6 90% 63–86 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest -0.7 145.0 48% 75–77 ✗
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +2.1 136.0 57% 67–51 ✗
Yale @ Columbia -13.2 131.3 15% 60–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara +1.7 128.8 57% 55–67 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +3.2 142.1 65% 66–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +5.3 147.4 72% 84–81 ✗
Charleston @ Towson -2.9 142.6 35% 76–74 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +7.2 132.7 78% 65–61 ✗
Florida State @ Duke +16.0 143.2 90% 67–86 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +11.7 154.8 87% 78–82 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +6.8 135.6 77% 66–69 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's -1.8 147.9 40% 83–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +8.1 141.1 81% 61–72 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -1.3 142.9 49% 75–63 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI +1.6 143.8 54% 64–50 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Central Connecticut +1.0 131.2 54% 52–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Wagner +7.4 125.1 74% 58–48 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University -4.9 146.6 29% 82–64 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +8.6 142.9 82% 65–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +10.6 149.9 86% 81–79 ✗
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.7 131.9 77% 65–72 ✓
UCF @ Houston +15.1 126.6 88% 65–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +9.8 140.8 83% 67–69 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -2.1 155.9 39% 69–60 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -1.2 140.3 49% 70–69 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +2.1 128.5 59% 62–77 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +8.2 139.5 81% 65–79 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +11.7 131.0 86% 45–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -10.0 141.3 17% 67–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte +9.3 139.4 82% 66–68 ✓
Marquette @ Villanova -0.2 149.3 48% 68–66 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason +3.3 135.2 65% 58–62 ✓
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +0.1 134.1 48% 64–83 ✓
La Salle @ VCU +11.8 139.3 87% 67–80 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson -0.6 130.2 50% 69–55 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.0 133.3 44% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +12.5 141.0 87% 54–67 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington +0.8 140.2 52% 66–62 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +1.0 151.4 56% 60–62 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +8.9 134.5 84% 51–69 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +2.3 138.7 63% 80–73 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell -1.3 143.0 46% 67–42 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +2.6 150.3 63% 80–51 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +2.0 130.8 61% 73–64 ✗
Louisiana @ Old Dominion +2.0 144.8 63% 66–70 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall +3.9 157.8 71% 72–66 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia State -0.9 130.1 48% 58–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.6 132.9 59% 73–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota -0.8 147.8 47% 63–80 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +2.7 137.0 62% 75–59 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -8.7 130.5 19% 55–42 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +9.3 144.6 82% 52–57 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +6.5 130.5 76% 56–66 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +15.9 145.3 90% 65–82 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +10.1 147.4 87% 66–82 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Florida +3.9 143.7 67% 85–90 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.0 151.1 71% 76–71 ✗
Rider @ Canisius +0.5 145.7 49% 66–64 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +2.0 135.1 60% 66–60 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +11.2 160.4 86% 88–94 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +3.2 145.9 63% 85–90 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +5.2 132.0 71% 84–72 ✗
App State @ Southern Miss +14.9 138.1 89% 70–76 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +0.8 145.7 54% 64–71 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -7.7 159.2 21% 80–62 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +2.8 132.1 65% 63–54 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State +3.7 146.3 69% 65–59 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State -2.0 143.9 41% 73–82 ✗
East Carolina @ Wichita State +6.9 129.0 76% 79–69 ✗
Florida International @ North Texas +15.7 128.8 89% 57–72 ✓
Utah @ Stanford +0.2 135.8 49% 71–66 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +7.5 143.5 78% 60–65 ✓
UTSA @ UAB +17.1 159.5 91% 67–90 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +1.6 146.5 58% 72–67 ✗
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago +3.9 140.8 66% 97–87 ✗
San José State @ Colorado State +4.0 138.0 64% 78–70 ✗
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +1.7 144.3 58% 63–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +7.3 148.2 77% 60–71 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -5.4 147.3 30% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis +0.4 149.3 49% 72–73 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.4 130.9 21% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +6.0 141.9 76% 60–76 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +5.5 146.0 74% 56–67 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State +5.9 142.3 76% 70–67 ✗
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky -1.3 146.7 46% 83–88 ✗
New Mexico @ Wyoming -7.9 146.9 20% 76–75 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV +2.6 141.2 61% 76–67 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin +3.8 145.5 67% 57–64 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois -2.3 145.9 41% 80–91 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +2.3 154.6 63% 69–94 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood +1.7 138.9 51% 64–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +13.6 157.6 88% 88–111 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar +1.3 138.1 54% 81–62 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -4.1 147.6 29% 72–78 ✗
Troy @ Texas State -2.4 134.6 39% 55–52 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State +3.2 146.9 67% 63–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +6.9 138.2 75% 74–82 ✓
Colorado @ California -10.7 133.6 17% 76–80 ✗
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -0.8 138.0 47% 75–62 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +5.3 138.1 72% 65–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +1.8 151.5 60% 73–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.