Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -125 MSM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -2.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.4 (+10.6) | 127.6 (-5.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -2.2 (+9.8) | 128.2 (-6.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -1.7 (+10.3) | 128.8 (-6.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -1.2 (+10.8) | 127.9 (-5.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#249) | -2.3 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#169) | -0.91 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | -0.92 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.459 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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