Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ISU +100 BAY -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -1.9 (+13.1) | 129.9 (+9.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -3.0 (+12.0) | 129.0 (+10.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -2.1 (+12.9) | 128.5 (+10.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -1.9 (+13.1) | 130.0 (+9.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#41) | 13.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#32) | 2.77 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#44) | 3.12 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#71) | 0.612 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 31.1% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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