Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -167 MARQ +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -2.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.6 (-1.4) | 151.2 (-17.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -0.3 (-2.3) | 147.1 (-13.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.2 (-1.8) | 149.3 (-15.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.2 (-1.8) | 152.1 (-18.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#86) | 12.9 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | 1.81 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#114) | 2.75 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#87) | 0.581 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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