Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +110 TROY -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +3 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -4.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.3 (+0.3) | 134.8 (-27.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.5 (+0.5) | 132.1 (-25.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.4 (-0.6) | 134.6 (-27.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.6 (+0.6) | 134.1 (-27.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#230) | 5.8 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#252) | 0.02 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#231) | 0.42 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#293) | 0.493 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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