Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | AF +160 NEV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -2.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.8 (-4.2) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -2.0 (-4.0) | 134.1 (+9.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.0 (-5.0) | 133.3 (+10.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.5 (-4.5) | 134.9 (+9.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#152) | 7.6 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#174) | 1.94 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#194) | 2.18 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#236) | 0.629 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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