Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -150 APSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -5.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -2.9 (+2.1) | 145.0 (+30.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -2.5 (+2.5) | 142.5 (+32.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -3.9 (+1.1) | 143.7 (+31.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -3.4 (+1.6) | 143.7 (+31.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#281) | -6.6 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#211) | -1.30 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#219) | -1.32 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#150) | 0.474 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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