Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -2000 SELA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +38 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -8.6 (+29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -7.8 (+30.2) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -10.5 (+27.5) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -7.0 (+31.0) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.8 (+30.2) | 145.0 (+3.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | -2.3 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#153) | -0.87 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#143) | -1.25 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.420 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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