Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +100 NOLA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +5 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -2.2 (+2.8) | 157.1 (+39.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.1 (+3.9) | 149.4 (+47.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.3 (+4.7) | 152.8 (+44.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -2.1 (+2.9) | 160.4 (+36.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NOLA 73 – 60 HCU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | HCU 85 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HCU 81 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HCU 86 – 76 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.0 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -17.6 (#361) | -15.6 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.47 (#363) | -2.73 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.33 (#363) | -3.40 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#340) | 0.425 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.5% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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