Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +300 SLU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -2.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -2.9 (-2.1) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -1.8 (-3.2) | 147.9 (+13.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -2.0 (-3.0) | 148.4 (+12.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -2.9 (-2.1) | 149.5 (+11.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SLU 102 – 79 JOES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JOES 76 – 63 SLU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SLU 73 – 57 JOES |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JOES 87 – 86 SLU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SLU 88 – 85 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#244) | 3.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#276) | 1.08 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#276) | 1.60 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#267) | 0.580 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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