Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -600 SLU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +1 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -12.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -11.8 (-10.8) | 153.5 (+19.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.6 (-8.6) | 153.5 (+19.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -10.6 (-9.6) | 152.7 (+20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -11.0 (-10.0) | 153.7 (+19.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SLU 102 – 79 JOES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JOES 76 – 63 SLU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SLU 73 – 57 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SLU 88 – 85 JOES |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SLU 83 – 78 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#93) | -3.3 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#108) | -0.18 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#107) | -0.29 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#102) | 0.495 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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