Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | SLU +122 JOES -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +3 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -8.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -8.0 (+11.0) | 151.0 (+22.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.0 (+11.0) | 147.7 (+25.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -7.9 (+10.9) | 148.6 (+24.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.4 (+11.4) | 148.5 (+24.5) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SLU 102 – 79 JOES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JOES 76 – 63 SLU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SLU 73 – 57 JOES |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JOES 87 – 86 SLU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SLU 83 – 78 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#242) | 9.0 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | 1.32 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#187) | 2.06 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#163) | 0.545 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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