Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -260 SLU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -6.7 (+6.3) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.3 (+7.7) | 139.0 (-0.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -5.2 (+7.8) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.6 (+7.4) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SLU 102 – 79 JOES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SLU 73 – 57 JOES |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JOES 87 – 86 SLU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SLU 88 – 85 JOES |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SLU 83 – 78 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#89) | 2.9 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#124) | 0.64 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#112) | 0.86 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#109) | 0.546 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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