Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +180 SAM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -2.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.5 (-10.5) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.7 (-9.3) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.3 (-10.7) | 142.9 (-4.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.6 (-10.4) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#287) | 0.6 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#246) | -0.91 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#239) | -0.80 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#245) | 0.438 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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