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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Virginia
@
Kansas State
|
+1.9 | 144.5 | 61% | 76–82 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Santa Clara
|
-2.2 | 134.8 | 41% | 67–64 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
San Francisco
|
+9.6 | 157.2 | 83% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+5.4 | 132.1 | 69% | 52–64 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+10.1 | 133.1 | 86% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oregon
|
+11.3 | 131.9 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Idaho State
|
+1.5 | 145.7 | 55% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Portland
@
BYU
|
+7.6 | 148.9 | 80% | 58–71 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Hawai'i
|
+9.9 | 127.4 | 81% | 48–57 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
UMBC
|
+2.5 | 142.5 | 64% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Indiana State
@
Valparaiso
|
-5.8 | 151.4 | 30% | 68–50 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Evansville
|
-1.2 | 138.5 | 44% | 78–61 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Dartmouth
|
-8.5 | 147.1 | 22% | 74–63 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Fairfield
|
+1.0 | 135.3 | 53% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Providence
@
DePaul
|
-5.6 | 152.8 | 27% | 74–59 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Temple
|
-1.6 | 144.1 | 44% | 61–70 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
SMU
|
+5.1 | 141.4 | 70% | 67–92 | ✓ |
USC
@
Washington State
|
+1.0 | 136.3 | 54% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
+4.1 | 132.6 | 67% | 49–52 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Manhattan
|
-6.8 | 146.8 | 27% | 84–65 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Iona
|
+16.8 | 138.0 | 90% | 55–73 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan
|
-0.9 | 141.3 | 46% | 46–81 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-2.7 | 153.7 | 36% | 89–96 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Southern Illinois
|
+5.2 | 135.7 | 73% | 45–63 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Penn State
|
+3.7 | 149.9 | 69% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
-3.7 | 144.0 | 35% | 80–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.