Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +188 PROV -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -6.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -7.1 (-7.9) | 153.4 (-20.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.8 (-8.2) | 151.3 (-18.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.6 (-9.4) | 152.8 (-19.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.7 (-8.3) | 153.5 (-20.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#189) | 9.6 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#151) | 1.99 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | 2.80 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.566 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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