Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -213 BEL +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +18 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -6.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.5 (+12.5) | 136.6 (-28.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -3.6 (+14.4) | 137.5 (-29.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.2 (+12.8) | 135.7 (-27.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.9 (+13.1) | 138.4 (-30.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#93) | 0.40 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | 0.08 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#121) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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