Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -800 UCSD +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -13.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -10.5 (+10.5) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -11.4 (+9.6) | 131.5 (+11.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.1 (+10.9) | 133.1 (+9.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -10.1 (+10.9) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#104) | -5.0 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#66) | -0.45 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#94) | -0.91 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#95) | 0.477 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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