Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +120 UNCO -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -4.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -2.1 (+4.9) | 145.5 (+27.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.8 (+5.2) | 146.2 (+26.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.5 (+5.5) | 145.7 (+27.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.9 (+5.1) | 146.7 (+26.3) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNCO 69 – 61 IDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCO 85 – 72 IDST |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UNCO 86 – 72 IDST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCO 93 – 92 IDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | IDST 83 – 76 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#251) | -3.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#337) | -0.08 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#297) | -0.06 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#347) | 0.512 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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