Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +110 UVM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -3.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.1 (-15.1) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.4 (-14.4) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.5 (-15.5) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.2 (-15.2) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#195) | -0.7 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#188) | -0.18 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#205) | -0.46 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#220) | 0.501 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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