Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -110 SIE +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -0.3 (-8.7) | 133.9 (-2.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.6 (-9.6) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.0 (-10.0) | 135.3 (-4.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.6 (-9.6) | 136.6 (-5.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | SIE 76 – 61 FAIR |
| Feb 28, 2026 | FAIR 72 – 58 SIE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SIE 85 – 77 FAIR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SIE 68 – 64 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 64 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#253) | 0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#270) | 0.30 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#280) | 0.33 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#264) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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