Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +260 INST -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -7.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -7.4 (-10.6) | 153.6 (-35.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.9 (-10.1) | 154.2 (-36.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.8 (-12.2) | 151.4 (-33.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -6.1 (-11.9) | 151.4 (-33.4) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#305) | 4.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#279) | 0.56 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#298) | 0.47 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#317) | 0.524 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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