Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SF -500 USD +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +12 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -10.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -9.2 (-21.2) | 154.7 (-6.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -11.2 (-23.2) | 152.9 (-4.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -9.6 (-21.6) | 157.2 (-9.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -9.6 (-21.6) | 156.8 (-8.8) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#94) | -1.5 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#89) | -0.61 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#89) | -0.34 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#122) | 0.465 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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