Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +210 MUR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -2.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -1.9 (-15.1) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.6 (-13.4) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.2 (-15.8) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -1.5 (-15.5) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#319) | -2.2 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#293) | -0.20 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#307) | -0.34 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#319) | 0.481 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.