Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -800 NCAT +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -14.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -11.0 (-13.0) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -10.6 (-12.6) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -10.9 (-12.9) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -11.1 (-13.1) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | NCAT 79 – 78 HOF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HOF 77 – 55 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOF 70 – 49 NCAT |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOF 81 – 49 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#119) | -7.1 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#87) | -1.19 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#96) | -1.45 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#30) | 0.419 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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