Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +800 HOF -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +32 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -9.8 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -9.3 (-22.7) | 139.6 (-9.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -9.4 (-22.6) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -8.0 (-24.0) | 138.1 (-8.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -8.6 (-23.4) | 138.6 (-8.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | NCAT 79 – 78 HOF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HOF 77 – 55 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOF 70 – 49 NCAT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | NCAT 81 – 79 HOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#337) | 0.9 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#320) | 0.40 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#320) | 0.63 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#297) | 0.534 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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