Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -550 NCAT +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -7.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -6.3 (+15.7) | 130.0 (+2.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -7.3 (+14.7) | 130.9 (+1.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -6.5 (+15.5) | 126.9 (+5.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -6.5 (+15.5) | 127.2 (+4.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | NCAT 79 – 78 HOF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOF 70 – 49 NCAT |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOF 81 – 49 NCAT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | NCAT 81 – 79 HOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#219) | -10.4 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | -2.20 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#230) | -2.88 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#222) | 0.405 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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