Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +380 HOF -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -8.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -7.8 (+8.8) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -8.2 (+9.2) | 146.8 (+10.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -7.6 (+8.6) | 143.6 (+13.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -7.5 (+8.5) | 144.9 (+12.1) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | HOF 77 – 55 NCAT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOF 70 – 49 NCAT |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOF 81 – 49 NCAT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | NCAT 81 – 79 HOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#284) | 4.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#303) | 0.93 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#302) | 1.06 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#302) | 0.577 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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