Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +275 COLG -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +34 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -4.7 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -7.1 (-26.9) | 140.7 (+27.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -6.4 (-27.6) | 140.0 (+28.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -6.1 (-27.9) | 142.3 (+25.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -6.0 (-28.0) | 144.5 (+23.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | COLG 90 – 77 L-MD |
| Feb 21, 2026 | COLG 101 – 98 L-MD |
| Jan 15, 2026 | COLG 86 – 80 L-MD |
| Feb 23, 2025 | L-MD 84 – 65 COLG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | COLG 82 – 68 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#322) | 0.3 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#319) | -0.69 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#323) | -0.28 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#334) | 0.464 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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