Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -200 MRST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -7.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.9 (+16.1) | 128.5 (-1.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.1 (+14.9) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -3.7 (+15.3) | 129.0 (-2.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -3.2 (+15.8) | 129.5 (-2.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#260) | -7.8 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#274) | -1.91 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#284) | -2.70 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#272) | 0.377 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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