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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–24 on winners spread MAE 8.6 75 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ Cornell +16.3 153.4 89% 70–86 ✓
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +8.5 148.9 82% 69–91 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +1.4 153.3 59% 81–78 ✗
Iowa @ Nebraska +0.4 146.0 54% 50–66 ✓
Central Michigan @ Michigan +13.5 148.6 87% 63–61 ✗
UMBC @ Maryland +16.0 144.6 88% 64–80 ✓
VMI @ Furman +10.3 152.7 87% 62–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +6.6 139.2 77% 73–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -4.4 148.6 36% 68–76 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +1.2 143.6 53% 72–80 ✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.9 140.1 74% 63–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion +9.3 132.2 84% 60–57 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia State -9.1 146.0 22% 63–47 ✓
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina -2.7 150.9 42% 76–77 ✗
App State @ Marshall +12.5 143.3 88% 53–79 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +2.2 137.4 60% 64–78 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland -6.3 151.5 27% 61–83 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +15.2 143.3 89% 59–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +0.6 134.5 50% 70–75 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern +3.3 137.5 67% 76–88 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +18.2 152.1 91% 61–89 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.4 147.6 59% 87–73 ✗
UTEP @ UAB +13.0 148.1 88% 73–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +5.0 149.9 71% 68–75 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +12.4 144.7 87% 86–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +0.5 134.9 54% 63–57 ✗
Evansville @ Indiana State +11.3 148.6 87% 63–91 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas +1.4 127.2 54% 50–46 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul +3.3 156.4 67% 76–83 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State +6.6 138.8 77% 63–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Utah Valley -0.6 137.3 49% 64–80 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +4.9 130.2 69% 59–73 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss +8.4 146.1 81% 60–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +11.1 137.8 86% 57–53 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -2.5 132.3 40% 50–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +2.4 145.2 63% 64–71 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota -6.9 147.1 31% 84–92 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha -11.0 152.4 17% 92–89 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +7.0 144.1 76% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +9.3 133.1 82% 59–71 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Illinois +23.2 148.8 91% 52–85 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +12.1 143.7 87% 51–64 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana +3.6 153.6 69% 81–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock -1.1 156.7 44% 74–88 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +4.5 142.7 70% 54–55 ✓
Tulane @ Cincinnati +7.7 151.2 77% 77–88 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +11.7 141.6 87% 63–68 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +12.3 159.0 87% 66–81 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +2.6 147.9 61% 92–72 ✗
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +15.7 143.9 88% 58–85 ✓
BYU @ Pacific -0.4 151.2 51% 69–49 ✓
Kansas City @ Denver +4.2 136.9 67% 83–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +3.3 142.8 68% 83–75 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton -0.6 132.0 46% 66–58 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +3.8 144.4 66% 72–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +1.4 145.0 53% 53–79 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +6.9 146.4 80% 58–72 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +5.3 143.4 73% 87–80 ✗
Utah @ California -11.9 131.5 15% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +2.2 147.3 62% 67–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +3.0 130.6 60% 57–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State +8.6 138.7 82% 85–83 ✗
Colorado @ Stanford +2.4 142.9 56% 73–70 ✗
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +6.2 138.4 76% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +0.8 153.1 54% 74–76 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -3.9 146.5 31% 76–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -5.4 138.4 29% 58–60 ✗
Navy @ Boston University +1.8 140.8 58% 75–58 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +4.4 137.8 69% 57–67 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +2.5 145.7 67% 86–80 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +2.4 151.6 60% 64–78 ✓
Siena @ Quinnipiac +4.8 141.0 69% 83–76 ✗
Lehigh @ Army +5.7 144.9 73% 78–80 ✓
Buffalo @ Michigan State +12.9 145.8 88% 68–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Hartford -9.2 136.3 17% 61–54 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.