Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PORT -120 LMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +20 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -4.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.1 (-22.1) | 149.6 (+14.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -1.8 (-21.8) | 148.9 (+15.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -2.6 (-22.6) | 147.9 (+16.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -2.8 (-22.8) | 149.0 (+15.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PORT 71 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | PORT 89 – 78 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | LMU 88 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PORT 78 – 70 LMU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PORT 70 – 60 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#105) | 3.8 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#192) | 1.21 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#171) | 1.46 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#236) | 0.561 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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