Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PORT +225 LMU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -8.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -5.9 (+13.9) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -5.2 (+13.2) | 141.7 (+6.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -6.7 (+14.7) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -6.2 (+14.2) | 141.8 (+6.2) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PORT 71 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | PORT 89 – 78 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | LMU 88 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PORT 70 – 60 LMU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | LMU 92 – 65 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#306) | -0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#271) | -0.60 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#266) | -0.65 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#276) | 0.465 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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