Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HC +210 BUCK -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -5.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -5.7 (+7.7) | 136.6 (-18.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -5.1 (+7.1) | 134.6 (-16.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -5.4 (+7.4) | 138.4 (-20.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -5.1 (+7.1) | 138.4 (-20.4) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HC 65 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUCK 94 – 81 HC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BUCK 86 – 82 HC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HC 73 – 59 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#352) | -3.2 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#357) | -0.85 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.91 (#353) | -0.98 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#357) | 0.442 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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